With the A's signing of Jason Giambi imminent, just like the signing of Furcal was...hey wait a minute...I guess nothing's been signed yet, huh? Well anyway, if the A's do sign Giambi, as currently rumored, let me offer a perspective on why it might work out better than his detractors fear.

While some are skeptical about Giambi's hitting skills going forward at age 38, I think all will agree that he represents an offensive upgrade that helps the middle of the order to become yet more legitimate. The big question is how much his defense at 1B, rated somewhere between average and gawdawful depending on your metric of choice, would offset the offensive gains.

I'm thinking that Mark Ellis may have been a factor in the A's apparent interest in signing Giambi to play 1B. Giambi's main issue at 1B is not "fielding ground balls" or "scooping errant throws." Along with a career-long weakness making the throw to 2B, the main reason Giambi hurts a team defensively is that he has the range of a sedated sea turtle who is trapped on land under Joe Blanton, only not quite as good.

Ellis, of course, has exceptional range. Imagine that in the 2009 defensive alignment Ellis is positioned another step or two to his left, essentially allowing him access to any ground ball that is more than a step to Giambi's right. This of course compromises Ellis' range to his right, but balls up the middle are a problem for Ellis anyway due to his limited throwing strength. Better to have your SS handle as many of those as possible.

Which is why the SS, Crosby or whomever, plays a step to his left, increasing his ability to get to balls up the middle and adequately covering for Ellis there. Chavez stays put, with his usual good range, to handle balls down the third base line, field left-side choppers, and cut off as many balls to his left as possible.

The end result? The biggest hole is between third and short, where Chavez is in a normal alignment but the SS is shaded to the second base bag. This is a problem, but many of the balls that now get through to LF are balls the SS would have backhanded deep in the hole - these are often infield hits, not outs, anyway, as they are the toughest plays of all to finish.

In other words, I think the A's feel that with a 2Bman who has great range and a left side of the infield that has above average range, the team can put on its own "Giambi shift" to turn their 1Bman into an adequate fielder. When should you curse Giambi's lack of range in this scenario? Ironically, only when a ball barely gets through the shortstop hole.

Meanwhile...

Buck - RF
Cust - DH
Holliday - LF
Giambi - 1B
Chavez - 3B
Suzuki - C
Sweeney - CF
Ellis - 2B
Crosby - SS

That lineup would score some runs, folks.

There’s not a whole lot of new info when it comes to the A’s minor league system this time of year; in fact, we’re pretty much at the point when all that’s left to do is to start speculating about who’ll be playing where to start next season. It’s a bit of a desperation move but one that’s usually good for a few rounds of discussion. (Good work there, Zonis!)

So what to write about on this the first Monday of 2009?

Continue reading this post »

For much of the past decade, the Giants and A's have been mirror images of each other - at least in terms of on-field success/lack thereof.  In the first half of the decade, both teams fielded competitive, marketable teams based around the presence of a highly visible core of players - Bonds for the Giants and the Big Three for the A's. From 2000 to 2004 both teams won more than 90 games every season and vaulted into the post-season regularly on the backs of these players. Since 2004, however, both teams have struggled to compete (with the exception of the 2006 A's) and have moved on from their early-decade glory years and the players that defined those teams.

But that's just about where the similarities end. The Giants rode the Barry Bonds train into a new stadium and largely ignored their farm system while slapping together "veteran" teams year-after-year in an attempt to keep the train chugging along for as long as possible. After awhile, Giants GM Brian Sabean became something of a lightning rod and laughing stock among baseball circles for his almost pathological devotion to aging, past-their-prime players such as Omar Vizquel and Moises Alou - not to mention his much-harangued epic failure in signing Barry Zito long-term.

Billy Beane, on the other hand and rightfully or not, became a beacon of enlightenment in the game, based on his perceived cutting-edge adoption of statistical analysis, reliance on his farm system and perpetual search for the "undervalued" commodity.

Based upon these stereotypes, Billy Beane was, again - rightfully or not, more highly regarded than Sabean by many in the baseball world as he seemed to be more creative, progressive and efficient than his Giants counterpart. But as of Winter 2008, that dynamic has begun to change.

While both teams entered this Winter at basically the same point in the competitive cycle - namely, rebuilding - Sabean has been unusually active in the free agent market by smartly buttressing his fantastic young pitching core with a better bullpen (Affeldt, Howry), better offense (Renteria) and a stabilizing presence in the middle of the rotation (Big Unit). Even then, Sabean doesn't seem to be done yet as he's been linked to Joe Crede and even Manny Ramirez. Ohhh, and that farm system he supposedly neglected for so long has been rebuilt fairly well over the past few years and will start to graduate some solid talent within the next few seasons (Buster Posey, Tim Alderson, Madison Bumgardner, Conor Gillespie, Emmanuel Burriss, Angel Villalona). Bucking conventional wisdom in a very un-Giants like-way, it sure seems like Sabean is on his way to walking that "contending while rebuilding" tight rope that so many before him have tried and failed.

By contrast, Billy Beane has seemed to have lost a step in his dance with Sabean this off-season. His trade for Matt Holliday was a promising kick-start to the Hot Stove season, but since that time he seems to be spinning his wheels, spending too much time courting players that never really intended to sign with Oakland (Furcal) and neglecting the players that might be more inclined to sign with the team and improve more critical gaping holes in the starting rotation - players such as Randy Johnson and Ben Sheets (the latter of whom Beane has never even inquired upon).

Since Beane has a solid track record of building competitive teams out of the hot stove ether and eventually getting who he wants, I guess it would be wise to give him a mulligan for his personnel moves (or lack thereof) so far this off-season. And while Sabean's moves have good looked so far this Winter, it's hard to argue that building a competitive team in the uber-soft NL West is a lot easier than building one in the AL West (where the Angels continue to feature top-tier starting pitching and a deep bullpen designed to win close games).

Even so, for once, it seems like Sabean is gaining ground on Beane in the court of public opinion. It remains to be seen if the current status quo will remain into Opening Day 2009 and, beyond that, who knows if Sabean's frenetic activity will prove more productive than Beane's patient scheming...but at this point in time it sure seems like Sabean, rightfully or not, is doing a better job of accomplishing what both men are striving for: "contending while rebuilding" or "supporting the young pitchers" or whatever the hell they are calling it these days...

Or, a series of koans illustrating the mystery of the backup backstop ...

[Original lyrics here.]

Bowen on the Bench

How many Rhodes must a GM live down
Before you call yourself a fan?
Yes, 'n' how many Grieves must in white cleats fail
Before we sign Garret And'?
Yes, 'n' how many usernames must the Internet trolls try
Before they're forever bANnEd?
The catcher, AN, is Bowen on the bench,
The catcher is Bowen on the bench.

How many trades must a fan cook up
Before a free agent we buy?
Yes, 'n' how many beers must one man have
Before he forgets Slide, Jeremy, Slide?
Yes, 'n' how many DLs will it take 'til we know
That Beane to the press has lied?
The catcher, AN, is Bowen on the bench,
The catcher is Bowen on the bench.

How many years can Mount Davis exist
Before it's brought down with TNT?
Yes, 'n' how many years can Mark Ellis compile assists
Before his Gold Glove they concede?
Yes, 'n' how many times can Jack Cust take those strikes,
Pretending he just doesn't see?
The catcher, AN, is Bowen on the bench,
The catcher is Bowen on the bench.

The baseball rumor-du-jour is a report in the Denver Post that the Giants are making an aggressive play for Manny Ramirez.

Some knee-jerk skepticism to that report is understandable; the Giants might simply want to drive up the price for the Dodgers, who had seemed to be his only suitor. But as Tim Dierkes of mlbtraderumors points out, the Giants spoke to Scott Boras about Manny back in November as well.

Let's assume for the sake of me having something to write about that San Francisco's interest is genuine. I'm going to make a lot of other assumptions in this post too - just go with 'em!

Manny led all hitters last year with a 7.57 WPA.  if the Dodgers don't sign him, and their division rival does, it creates a Double Impact for L.A. 

Won't the Dodgers be looking to counter that move somehow? They'll still have a hole in left field, despite having the most expensive 4th and 5th outfielders in history under contract.

   {10:00am, Editor's Note - notsellingjeans was texting this post when the car he was driving slammed into the freeway divider. Because texting while driving had been made illegal just hours before, notsellingjeans was arrested. He heroically tried to use his one phone call to dictate the rest of the post to me, but I thought he was a solicitor and yelled "Stop bothering me!!!" before slamming down the phone. We do not know how this post ends, but remember folks: Don't text and drive. -Nico}

Editor's Note #2:  Posting from Jail:

The A’s are one of the few teams in baseball who (seemingly) have the ability to eat money right now in a trade, if it allows them to get good young players they want.

That would seem to make them a good trading partner for the Dodgers, who have been extremely hesitant to add salary via trade in the last year.

I think the Dodgers would be hesitant to trade James McDonald right now, because he might end up being their fifth starter. And it doesn’t make much sense for them to acquire Holliday if it weakens their major league roster by a win or two in the process.

I think that, if the A’s traded Holliday to the Dodgers, my ideal realistic(?) return package would be Andrew Lambo, DeJesus, Jr., and Josh Lindblom. Those are their 3rd-5th-best prospects, all in the B range.

I realize there’s not a star in there, but those are probably three future useful major leaguers. Not a bad haul for one year of Holliday.

I also meant to mention in my previously unfinished diary that, if there’s an offseason market for Holliday, it would make sense that it’s in the the NL West. The Rockies might’ve felt that they couldn’t have traded him to a team within their division.

As for the other 24 teams, if they wanted him as bad as the A’s apparently did, they probably would’ve attempted to acquire him already before the A’s did.

Trading Holliday for the three above-mentioned Dodgers prospects would put the A's 40-man roster at 39.

Then I'd sign Giambi, let him thumb-wrestle with Cust over who has to play the field and who gets to DH, and call it an offseason. 

At 3 p.m. Pacific Time this afternoon, the MLB Network is set to debut, billing itself as the first 24 hour, 7 days a week network devoted to baseball. The network is not a premium channel, but is instead included on most extended basic cable plans, so you might actually have it - and not know! (On Comcast Bay Area, it is #412)

You can also use the channel locator found here.

The first day's content recaps free agent signings and off-season player moves in a show they are calling "Hot Stove", and will be followed by the much-hyped first re-airing of Don Larsen's perfect game in the 1956 World Series. The network plans to both highlight players of the past, and showcase today's athletes, and will carry 26 regular season games.

Over the last few weeks, I have been watching the MLB Network a ton, considering it hadn't really launched yet. I saw highlight reels of famous fielding plays. I saw big game-ending home runs, from Dave Henderson to Joe Carter to deleted deleted in 1988. I watched highlights of Jackie Robinson, Roberto Clemente, Willie Mays, Nolan Ryan, and more, until I realized I'd seen all the pre-taped program, and found myself watching the same footage over again.

I am both excited about this debut and nervous. Given how ESPN has become practically unwatchable for me, I have to hope the MLB network can give us the raw baseball stories and highlights I am looking for. I worry greatly that they won't have enough original content each day, and that the same East Coast bias we've seen elsewhere will be here as well. Seeing the replay of the 2004 World Series during this time cemented that concern...

The MLB Network says it will highlight all 30 teams in Spring Training. It will feature an interview with Yogi Berra, Larsen and Bob Costas after today's re-airing. This could be great, or it could be another place for us to complain if the A's are featured 28th, and seen only once or twice in the 26 games. But I am hopeful, and that's part of what being a sports fan is all about.

Go 2009! Go A's! and good luck... MLB.

See also: MLB.com  MLB Network to debut in mere hours.

Why would any man need a wife if he had AN? Right here, I can interact with a bunch of boobs, constantly be told I'm wrong, and be blamed for things that I don't even remember I said three years ago. So may 2009 bring more of what makes AN great, such as:

* "Patterson, Pennington, Casilla, Bowen, and Hannahan for Yunel Escobar - I know, five players is a lot to give up but Escobar is pretty good."

* "o no here we go again. your not allowed to say anything bad about beene on this site even though he made the kelty trade and how did that work out?"

* "How can you not want Garret Anderson to DH - the guy doesn't strickout nearly as much as Cust!!!!111"

* "You're wrong!"
   "No, you're wrong!"
   "I feel sorry for you for how wrong you are!"
   "Your wrongness is so blasphemously and blatantly absurd that it brings wrongness
    to a whole other stratosphere of wrongness!"
   "Not true, PT."
   "Yes it is, grover."

Thanks to my second-most dysfunctional family for keeping me off the streets and in my underwear, and here's to more lively banter in 2009!

For the first time in the ten years since I moved to Los Angeles, the city is abuzz with Spring Training news and planning, despite the recent economic crunch. And for good reason too; the Los Angeles Dodgers have moved from Vero Beach, FL to Glendale, AZ and even though tickets are not on sale for the games yet, the Dodgers expect to open their 2009 campaign on the west side of the U.S. this year.

Anticipating the mad rush to book the LAX/Phoenix flight, I was forced to make Spring Training plans early.

I love Spring Training. It is truly one of the highlights of the season for me; a chance to see the new A's team up close and personal; to get great seats for $20-ish a ticket, along with the possibility of a chance meeting with any number of Major League Baseball players in a favorite restaurant.

It's a relaxed atmosphere where you are likely to see A's players, management, and broadcasters milling about; where hopes of the upcoming season are high, and excitement is in the air. Could this be the team? Will these be the players?

I know that some ANers have picked the second weekend in March as their Spring Training vacation, so if you are looking for some AN friends, feel free to respond in this thread. Likewise, if you are looking for a weekend to go, I'd recommend that one. A's home tickets went on sale in November, and many other parks will go on sale in the upcoming two weeks, including (I'm assuming) the brand-new Dodgers Spring Training Stadium.

So let's talk about Spring Training. Favorite restaurants, favorite parks, best seats, favorite players. Let's get ready for 2009!

Until someone makes another move, I'm tired of talking about the AL West and you can't turn on ESPN without hearing about the AL East. Or so I've heard from people who actually turn on ESPN.

Remember this time last year, when the Tigers and Indians were going to be battling it out for the AL Central crown? How in hindsight, it was clear they weren't but so few of us saw things as they really would be, with the Tigers starting out hopeless only to improve to mediocrity and the Indians starting out bad only to improve to so-so, while the White Sox and Twins out played expectations and easily out played Detroit and Cleveland.

So let's get it right this time. We don't know who will be surprisingly injured or who might get old overnight, part of the unpredictability that makes baseball so wonderful. Ly aggravating. So no excuses. You know how old people are, you know how injury prone they are. You know who can hit, who can pitch, who can field.

Don't forget the Royals, as they're in the division too and their darkest years may be behind them. Five teams, five spots. Who will be at top, who will be at the bottom, and which runners-up will be in the race down to the end? And how many wins will it take to win the AL Central anyway? Good luck, and no taksies-backsies because you're writing in "pen".

I'd be lying if I said I was completely satisfied with the A's lack of activity since the Holliday trade.  Although I wrote last week about how I was content just looking forward to seeing Holliday playing for the A's, I'd be a lot happier if the A's justified the trade by improving their roster even more over the next month or two. There's simply no way that this team will be competitive next season as currently constructed. It will certainly be better than last year's team (or at least the team that took the field in August & September of '08) just by virtue of the presence of Matt Holliday and presumed better health for Ellis, Chavez, Buck and Duke (hence my prior euphoria). Yet, even perfect health from those four, plus 2008-like performances from Suzuki and Sweeney, would leave this team at least two pieces away from serious 2009 contention. Those two pieces, in my opinion, are a dependable 2/3 starting pitcher and a 1st baseman that can reach or exceed league-average production with the bat (I'm just gonna assume that the A's will have to live with Crosby at short for at least the 1st half of the season.)

Now, back a few weeks ago when it seemed like Beane had unlimited resources to address those (and other) needs, I felt confident that the A's would be able to spend some coin to address at least two areas of concern via free agency. I felt like Beane would be able to, say, nab Giambi with a 2-year deal and get Randy Johnson for 1-year and still come in under budget. Since that time, however, it's become apparent that Beane's previously-thought-of payroll flexibility has been significantly tightened in light of the financial crisis. We'll never know exactly how much of a hit Beane has taken, but what we can infer from the recent hot stove chatter out there is that Beane is now back trolling the waters for the bargains in free agency (Giambi/Dunn/Burrell) rather than going after the (relatively) big fish he had been linked with earlier in the Winter (Furcal).

With that in mind, he's possibly all-but-ruled out going after BOTH a starting pitcher and a 1st base bat. He simply doesn't have the resources he thought he did to delve into a two front negotiating war with the dwindling market for free agents. So, if Beane can't squeeze a starter and a 1st baseman into the budget, and has to choose one or the other, why is he focusing on 1st base when clearly the starting rotation needs as much veteran help as the offense?

Well, in my optimistic interpretation of the situation, I think Beane is playing the markets to his greatest advantage. At this point, there are more impact bats on the market than there teams that can pay them what they want. Abundant supply plus minimal demand means that at least one of these guys will come at a discount relative to his value. On the other hand, now that the Big Unit has signed with the Giants, there are very few free agent starters out there that will a) be a major impact pitcher next season, b) only be looking for a 1 or 2 year deal and c) be available for a workable (less than $12 million) per-year salary. In fact, the only two remaining arms in the free agent class that come even close to that bill would be Ben Sheets and/or Randy Wolff, both of whom come with injury histories and favorable numbers from spending their entire careers in the National League...and even then they still might be out of the price range, seeing as how every other pitching-starved team will be courting them. As much as I'd like to see the A's pick up Sheets, I just don't see it happening. The guy rejected arbitration after earning $12 million last season so he's obviously confident that he can get at least that much, if not more plus multiple guaranteed years, from a team on the open market. I don't think Beane wants to go over $10-12 million or more than two years for any pitcher, let alone an injury-risk.

That leaves Beane with all of his cash to spend on a bat. He's not jumping all over Giambi or Abreu or Burrell with that cash, but rather he's going to wait the market out and see which one falls into his lap at HIS price (say, $16 million for 2 years). At that point, I think Beane sits on the team for the time being. He'd have improved the offense overall and got two sluggers at major slugging-oriented positions (left field, 1st base) and would presumably still have some cash left over.

Say Chavez and Duke are 100-percent healthy for the 1st half of '09, Giambi/ Burrell/Cust do their things (walks/homers), the young players make a little progress and Holliday puts in another-MVP like half-season...then at that point Beane can re-assess the market (at a time when teams will have a much better read on their chances) and make a major move for another starter or even JJ Hardy or Tejada, who will be 1/2 year cheaper to acquire in July rather than right now.

Basically, what I'm seeing here with Beane, is that he realizes that a lot of things have to go right in order for this team to be truly competitive next season. Chavez, Duke and Ellis have to be 100-percent healthy, and then on top of that one of the young starters (Gallagher, Gio, Eveland) has to quickly emerge as a consistent, better-than-mid-rotation pitcher. That's a lot to ask for but not entirely implausible. Being a gambler, I could see Beane betting that those things happen (improved health and a breakout from a young pitcher) and then could see him elect to improve the offense around the edges (with Giambi/Abreu/Burrell) and then enter the season with both prospects and cash to spare for the trade deadline when the market for both shortstops and starting pitchers may improve when a more clear buyer/seller dynamic can be established.

Overall, I'm just trying to rationalize why we haven't seen much more activity out of the A's front office. Perhaps the plan is to improve the offense on a budget (the cheapest of Giambi/Abreu/Burrell), enter the season with payroll flexibility , see how the young pitchers perform in the 1st half and then make a play for the missing piece(s) at mid-season?

Then again, i really could just be totally mis-reading Beane altogether and we'll all see him go out and sign Garret Anderson as a combination starting pitcher/DH, thereby killing all his birds with one big, irrational and highly unexpected stone.