Athletics Nation

Get Ready For The "Giambi Shift"

2009-01-06T01:06:57Z

With the A's signing of Jason Giambi imminent, just like the signing of Furcal was...hey wait a minute...I guess nothing's been signed yet, huh? Well anyway, if the A's do sign Giambi, as currently rumored, let me offer a perspective on why it might work out better than his detractors fear.

While some are skeptical about Giambi's hitting skills going forward at age 38, I think all will agree that he represents an offensive upgrade that helps the middle of the order to become yet more legitimate. The big question is how much his defense at 1B, rated somewhere between average and gawdawful depending on your metric of choice, would offset the offensive gains.

I'm thinking that Mark Ellis may have been a factor in the A's apparent interest in signing Giambi to play 1B. Giambi's main issue at 1B is not "fielding ground balls" or "scooping errant throws." Along with a career-long weakness making the throw to 2B, the main reason Giambi hurts a team defensively is that he has the range of a sedated sea turtle who is trapped on land under Joe Blanton, only not quite as good.

Ellis, of course, has exceptional range. Imagine that in the 2009 defensive alignment Ellis is positioned another step or two to his left, essentially allowing him access to any ground ball that is more than a step to Giambi's right. This of course compromises Ellis' range to his right, but balls up the middle are a problem for Ellis anyway due to his limited throwing strength. Better to have your SS handle as many of those as possible.

Which is why the SS, Crosby or whomever, plays a step to his left, increasing his ability to get to balls up the middle and adequately covering for Ellis there. Chavez stays put, with his usual good range, to handle balls down the third base line, field left-side choppers, and cut off as many balls to his left as possible.

The end result? The biggest hole is between third and short, where Chavez is in a normal alignment but the SS is shaded to the second base bag. This is a problem, but many of the balls that now get through to LF are balls the SS would have backhanded deep in the hole - these are often infield hits, not outs, anyway, as they are the toughest plays of all to finish.

In other words, I think the A's feel that with a 2Bman who has great range and a left side of the infield that has above average range, the team can put on its own "Giambi shift" to turn their 1Bman into an adequate fielder. When should you curse Giambi's lack of range in this scenario? Ironically, only when a ball barely gets through the shortstop hole.

Meanwhile...

Buck - RF
Cust - DH
Holliday - LF
Giambi - 1B
Chavez - 3B
Suzuki - C
Sweeney - CF
Ellis - 2B
Crosby - SS

That lineup would score some runs, folks.

Monday's Minor Leagues Update: 2009 Version!

2009-01-05T08:24:57Z

There’s not a whole lot of new info when it comes to the A’s minor league system this time of year; in fact, we’re pretty much at the point when all that’s left to do is to start speculating about who’ll be playing where to start next season. It’s a bit of a desperation move but one that’s usually good for a few rounds of discussion. (Good work there, Zonis!)

So what to write about on this the first Monday of 2009?

To start with, how about I throw a bone to the ever diminishing crowd of folks who believe the A’s can replace that not dearly-departed-enough Bobby Crosby at SS with a home grown option. Gregorio Petit has had himself a fine winter season with the bat while playing for Caracas in the Venezuelan League. He’s hitting 315/386/414 in 203 at bats with a 22/36 BB/K rate to go with 14 doubles and 2 HR. I’m not sure how well those numbers will carry over into ST or if the A’s are even serious about giving him a chance at the starting SS job but he’s certainly not doing anything offensively to hurt his chances.

Santiago Casilla has been lights out for Escogido in the DWL; pitching 10 innings and collecting 4 Saves while allowing 1 R (unearned) 4 H, 3 BB and striking out 9.

Henry Rodriguez has been throwing awful for Zulia in the VWL. Note that I called what he did “throwing” and not “pitching”. 12 H and 13 BB in 11.2 IP does not in any way come close to earning the term “pitching”. I know the guy has a monster arm but the guy has regressed since the in-season promotion to Midland last year. If the A’s can find someone willing to pay almost full price for the dream that is Henry Rodriguez then they need to make that deal quick like bunny rabbit.

OK, now what do I write about next time around?

I’ve got an idea or three kicking around in my head but now ‘tis the season to make requests/offer suggestions about what you’d like to see in your Minor League reports. Let's hear what you got, AN.

Is Brian Sabean "out-GM-ing" Billy Beane This Offseason?

2009-01-04T18:05:10Z

For much of the past decade, the Giants and A's have been mirror images of each other - at least in terms of on-field success/lack thereof. In the first half of the decade, both teams fielded competitive, marketable teams based around the presence of a highly visible core of players - Bonds for the Giants and the Big Three for the A's. From 2000 to 2004 both teams won more than 90 games every season and vaulted into the post-season regularly on the backs of these players. Since 2004, however, both teams have struggled to compete (with the exception of the 2006 A's) and have moved on from their early-decade glory years and the players that defined those teams.

But that's just about where the similarities end. The Giants rode the Barry Bonds train into a new stadium and largely ignored their farm system while slapping together "veteran" teams year-after-year in an attempt to keep the train chugging along for as long as possible. After awhile, Giants GM Brian Sabean became something of a lightning rod and laughing stock among baseball circles for his almost pathological devotion to aging, past-their-prime players such as Omar Vizquel and Moises Alou - not to mention his much-harangued epic failure in signing Barry Zito long-term.

Billy Beane, on the other hand and rightfully or not, became a beacon of enlightenment in the game, based on his perceived cutting-edge adoption of statistical analysis, reliance on his farm system and perpetual search for the "undervalued" commodity.

Based upon these stereotypes, Billy Beane was, again - rightfully or not, more highly regarded than Sabean by many in the baseball world as he seemed to be more creative, progressive and efficient than his Giants counterpart. But as of Winter 2008, that dynamic has begun to change.

While both teams entered this Winter at basically the same point in the competitive cycle - namely, rebuilding - Sabean has been unusually active in the free agent market by smartly buttressing his fantastic young pitching core with a better bullpen (Affeldt, Howry), better offense (Renteria) and a stabilizing presence in the middle of the rotation (Big Unit). Even then, Sabean doesn't seem to be done yet as he's been linked to Joe Crede and even Manny Ramirez. Ohhh, and that farm system he supposedly neglected for so long has been rebuilt fairly well over the past few years and will start to graduate some solid talent within the next few seasons (Buster Posey, Tim Alderson, Madison Bumgardner, Conor Gillespie, Emmanuel Burriss, Angel Villalona). Bucking conventional wisdom in a very un-Giants like-way, it sure seems like Sabean is on his way to walking that "contending while rebuilding" tight rope that so many before him have tried and failed.

By contrast, Billy Beane has seemed to have lost a step in his dance with Sabean this off-season. His trade for Matt Holliday was a promising kick-start to the Hot Stove season, but since that time he seems to be spinning his wheels, spending too much time courting players that never really intended to sign with Oakland (Furcal) and neglecting the players that might be more inclined to sign with the team and improve more critical gaping holes in the starting rotation - players such as Randy Johnson and Ben Sheets (the latter of whom Beane has never even inquired upon).

Since Beane has a solid track record of building competitive teams out of the hot stove ether and eventually getting who he wants, I guess it would be wise to give him a mulligan for his personnel moves (or lack thereof) so far this off-season. And while Sabean's moves have good looked so far this Winter, it's hard to argue that building a competitive team in the uber-soft NL West is a lot easier than building one in the AL West (where the Angels continue to feature top-tier starting pitching and a deep bullpen designed to win close games).

Even so, for once, it seems like Sabean is gaining ground on Beane in the court of public opinion. It remains to be seen if the current status quo will remain into Opening Day 2009 and, beyond that, who knows if Sabean's frenetic activity will prove more productive than Beane's patient scheming...but at this point in time it sure seems like Sabean, rightfully or not, is doing a better job of accomplishing what both men are striving for: "contending while rebuilding" or "supporting the young pitchers" or whatever the hell they are calling it these days...

Poll

Is Brian Sabean doing a better job this off-season than Billy Beane?

2009 Poetic Interlude #1: Bowen on the Bench

2009-01-03T15:20:11Z

Or, a series of koans illustrating the mystery of the backup backstop ...

[Original lyrics here.]

Bowen on the Bench

How many Rhodes must a GM live down
Before you call yourself a fan?
Yes, 'n' how many Grieves must in white cleats fail
Before we sign Garret And'?
Yes, 'n' how many usernames must the Internet trolls try
Before they're forever bANnEd?
The catcher, AN, is Bowen on the bench,
The catcher is Bowen on the bench.

How many trades must a fan cook up
Before a free agent we buy?
Yes, 'n' how many beers must one man have
Before he forgets Slide, Jeremy, Slide?
Yes, 'n' how many DLs will it take 'til we know
That Beane to the press has lied?
The catcher, AN, is Bowen on the bench,
The catcher is Bowen on the bench.

How many years can Mount Davis exist
Before it's brought down with TNT?
Yes, 'n' how many years can Mark Ellis compile assists
Before his Gold Glove they concede?
Yes, 'n' how many times can Jack Cust take those strikes,
Pretending he just doesn't see?
The catcher, AN, is Bowen on the bench,
The catcher is Bowen on the bench.

Poll

How many Rhodes must a GM live down before you call yourself a fan?

The Holliday Market

2009-01-02T05:00:06Z

The baseball rumor-du-jour is a report in the Denver Post that the Giants are making an aggressive play for Manny Ramirez.

Some knee-jerk skepticism to that report is understandable; the Giants might simply want to drive up the price for the Dodgers, who had seemed to be his only suitor. But as Tim Dierkes of mlbtraderumors points out, the Giants spoke to Scott Boras about Manny back in November as well.

Let's assume ~~for the sake of me having something to write about~~ that San Francisco's interest is genuine. ~~I'm going to make a lot of other assumptions in this post too - just go with 'em!~~

Manny led all hitters last year with a 7.57 WPA. if the Dodgers don't sign him, and their division rival does, it creates a Double Impact for L.A.

Won't the Dodgers be looking to counter that move somehow? They'll still have a hole in left field, despite having the most expensive 4th and 5th outfielders in history under contract.

{10:00am, Editor's Note - notsellingjeans was texting this post when the car he was driving slammed into the freeway divider. Because texting while driving had been made illegal just hours before, notsellingjeans was arrested. He heroically tried to use his one phone call to dictate the rest of the post to me, but I thought he was a solicitor and yelled "Stop bothering me!!!" before slamming down the phone. We do not know how this post ends, but remember folks: Don't text and drive. -Nico}

Editor's Note #2: Posting from Jail:

The A’s are one of the few teams in baseball who (seemingly) have the ability to eat money right now in a trade, if it allows them to get good young players they want.

That would seem to make them a good trading partner for the Dodgers, who have been extremely hesitant to add salary via trade in the last year.

I think the Dodgers would be hesitant to trade James McDonald right now, because he might end up being their fifth starter. And it doesn’t make much sense for them to acquire Holliday if it weakens their major league roster by a win or two in the process.

I think that, if the A’s traded Holliday to the Dodgers, my ideal realistic(?) return package would be Andrew Lambo, DeJesus, Jr., and Josh Lindblom. Those are their 3rd-5th-best prospects, all in the B range.

I realize there’s not a star in there, but those are probably three future useful major leaguers. Not a bad haul for one year of Holliday.

I also meant to mention in my previously unfinished diary that, if there’s an offseason market for Holliday, it would make sense that it’s in the the NL West. The Rockies might’ve felt that they couldn’t have traded him to a team within their division.

As for the other 24 teams, if they wanted him as bad as the A’s apparently did, they probably would’ve attempted to acquire him already before the A’s did.

Trading Holliday for the three above-mentioned Dodgers prospects would put the A's 40-man roster at 39.

Then I'd sign Giambi, let him thumb-wrestle with Cust over who has to play the field and who gets to DH, and call it an offseason.

The MLB Network's First Pitch is Today

2009-01-01T21:00:25Z

At 3 p.m. Pacific Time this afternoon, the MLB Network is set to debut, billing itself as the first 24 hour, 7 days a week network devoted to baseball. The network is not a premium channel, but is instead included on most extended basic cable plans, so you might actually have it - and not know! (On Comcast Bay Area, it is #412)

You can also use the channel locator found here.

The first day's content recaps free agent signings and off-season player moves in a show they are calling "Hot Stove", and will be followed by the much-hyped first re-airing of Don Larsen's perfect game in the 1956 World Series. The network plans to both highlight players of the past, and showcase today's athletes, and will carry 26 regular season games.

Over the last few weeks, I have been watching the MLB Network a ton, considering it hadn't really launched yet. I saw highlight reels of famous fielding plays. I saw big game-ending home runs, from Dave Henderson to Joe Carter to deleted deleted in 1988. I watched highlights of Jackie Robinson, Roberto Clemente, Willie Mays, Nolan Ryan, and more, until I realized I'd seen all the pre-taped program, and found myself watching the same footage over again.

I am both excited about this debut and nervous. Given how ESPN has become practically unwatchable for me, I have to hope the MLB network can give us the raw baseball stories and highlights I am looking for. I worry greatly that they won't have enough original content each day, and that the same East Coast bias we've seen elsewhere will be here as well. Seeing the replay of the 2004 World Series during this time cemented that concern...

The MLB Network says it will highlight all 30 teams in Spring Training. It will feature an interview with Yogi Berra, Larsen and Bob Costas after today's re-airing. This could be great, or it could be another place for us to complain if the A's are featured 28th, and seen only once or twice in the 26 games. But I am hopeful, and that's part of what being a sports fan is all about.

Go 2009! Go A's! and good luck... MLB.

See also: MLB.com MLB Network to debut in mere hours.

Happy New Year!!!111

2009-01-01T19:32:24Z

Why would any man need a wife if he had AN? Right here, I can interact with a bunch of boobs, constantly be told I'm wrong, and be blamed for things that I don't even remember I said three years ago. So may 2009 bring more of what makes AN great, such as:

* "Patterson, Pennington, Casilla, Bowen, and Hannahan for Yunel Escobar - I know, five players is a lot to give up but Escobar is pretty good."

* "o no here we go again. your not allowed to say anything bad about beene on this site even though he made the kelty trade and how did that work out?"

* "How can you not want Garret Anderson to DH - the guy doesn't strickout nearly as much as Cust!!!!111"

* "You're wrong!"
   "No, you're wrong!"
   "I feel sorry for you for how wrong you are!"
   "Your wrongness is so blasphemously and blatantly absurd that it brings wrongness
    to a whole other stratosphere of wrongness!"
   "Not true, PT."
   "Yes it is, grover."

Thanks to my second-most dysfunctional family for keeping me off the streets and in my underwear, and here's to more lively banter in 2009!

Spring Training, Anyone?

2008-12-31T08:44:58Z

For the first time in the ten years since I moved to Los Angeles, the city is abuzz with Spring Training news and planning, despite the recent economic crunch. And for good reason too; the Los Angeles Dodgers have moved from Vero Beach, FL to Glendale, AZ and even though tickets are not on sale for the games yet, the Dodgers expect to open their 2009 campaign on the west side of the U.S. this year.

Anticipating the mad rush to book the LAX/Phoenix flight, I was forced to make Spring Training plans early.

I love Spring Training. It is truly one of the highlights of the season for me; a chance to see the new A's team up close and personal; to get great seats for $20-ish a ticket, along with the possibility of a chance meeting with any number of Major League Baseball players in a favorite restaurant.

It's a relaxed atmosphere where you are likely to see A's players, management, and broadcasters milling about; where hopes of the upcoming season are high, and excitement is in the air. Could this be the team? Will these be the players?

I know that some ANers have picked the second weekend in March as their Spring Training vacation, so if you are looking for some AN friends, feel free to respond in this thread. Likewise, if you are looking for a weekend to go, I'd recommend that one. A's home tickets went on sale in November, and many other parks will go on sale in the upcoming two weeks, including (I'm assuming) the brand-new Dodgers Spring Training Stadium.

So let's talk about Spring Training. Favorite restaurants, favorite parks, best seats, favorite players. Let's get ready for 2009!

Poll

My Spring Training Plans:

The Forgotten Division - Your AL Central

2008-12-30T18:43:21Z

Until someone makes another move, I'm tired of talking about the AL West and you can't turn on ESPN without hearing about the AL East. Or so I've heard from people who actually turn on ESPN.

Remember this time last year, when the Tigers and Indians were going to be battling it out for the AL Central crown? How in hindsight, it was clear they weren't but so few of us saw things as they really would be, with the Tigers starting out hopeless only to improve to mediocrity and the Indians starting out bad only to improve to so-so, while the White Sox and Twins out played expectations and easily out played Detroit and Cleveland.

So let's get it right this time. We don't know who will be surprisingly injured or who might get old overnight, part of the unpredictability that makes baseball so wonderful. Ly aggravating. So no excuses. You know how old people are, you know how injury prone they are. You know who can hit, who can pitch, who can field.

Don't forget the Royals, as they're in the division too and their darkest years may be behind them. Five teams, five spots. Who will be at top, who will be at the bottom, and which runners-up will be in the race down to the end? And how many wins will it take to win the AL Central anyway? Good luck, and no taksies-backsies because you're writing in "pen".

Beane Waiting Until the All Star Break to Make a Major Move?

2008-12-28T18:00:08Z

I'd be lying if I said I was completely satisfied with the A's lack of activity since the Holliday trade. Although I wrote last week about how I was content just looking forward to seeing Holliday playing for the A's, I'd be a lot happier if the A's justified the trade by improving their roster even more over the next month or two. There's simply no way that this team will be competitive next season as currently constructed. It will certainly be better than last year's team (or at least the team that took the field in August & September of '08) just by virtue of the presence of Matt Holliday and presumed better health for Ellis, Chavez, Buck and Duke (hence my prior euphoria). Yet, even perfect health from those four, plus 2008-like performances from Suzuki and Sweeney, would leave this team at least two pieces away from serious 2009 contention. Those two pieces, in my opinion, are a dependable 2/3 starting pitcher and a 1st baseman that can reach or exceed league-average production with the bat (I'm just gonna assume that the A's will have to live with Crosby at short for at least the 1st half of the season.)

Now, back a few weeks ago when it seemed like Beane had unlimited resources to address those (and other) needs, I felt confident that the A's would be able to spend some coin to address at least two areas of concern via free agency. I felt like Beane would be able to, say, nab Giambi with a 2-year deal and get Randy Johnson for 1-year and still come in under budget. Since that time, however, it's become apparent that Beane's previously-thought-of payroll flexibility has been significantly tightened in light of the financial crisis. We'll never know exactly how much of a hit Beane has taken, but what we can infer from the recent hot stove chatter out there is that Beane is now back trolling the waters for the bargains in free agency (Giambi/Dunn/Burrell) rather than going after the (relatively) big fish he had been linked with earlier in the Winter (Furcal).

With that in mind, he's possibly all-but-ruled out going after BOTH a starting pitcher and a 1st base bat. He simply doesn't have the resources he thought he did to delve into a two front negotiating war with the dwindling market for free agents. So, if Beane can't squeeze a starter and a 1st baseman into the budget, and has to choose one or the other, why is he focusing on 1st base when clearly the starting rotation needs as much veteran help as the offense?

Well, in my optimistic interpretation of the situation, I think Beane is playing the markets to his greatest advantage. At this point, there are more impact bats on the market than there teams that can pay them what they want. Abundant supply plus minimal demand means that at least one of these guys will come at a discount relative to his value. On the other hand, now that the Big Unit has signed with the Giants, there are very few free agent starters out there that will a) be a major impact pitcher next season, b) only be looking for a 1 or 2 year deal and c) be available for a workable (less than $12 million) per-year salary. In fact, the only two remaining arms in the free agent class that come even close to that bill would be Ben Sheets and/or Randy Wolff, both of whom come with injury histories and favorable numbers from spending their entire careers in the National League...and even then they still might be out of the price range, seeing as how every other pitching-starved team will be courting them. As much as I'd like to see the A's pick up Sheets, I just don't see it happening. The guy rejected arbitration after earning $12 million last season so he's obviously confident that he can get at least that much, if not more plus multiple guaranteed years, from a team on the open market. I don't think Beane wants to go over $10-12 million or more than two years for any pitcher, let alone an injury-risk.

That leaves Beane with all of his cash to spend on a bat. He's not jumping all over Giambi or Abreu or Burrell with that cash, but rather he's going to wait the market out and see which one falls into his lap at HIS price (say, $16 million for 2 years). At that point, I think Beane sits on the team for the time being. He'd have improved the offense overall and got two sluggers at major slugging-oriented positions (left field, 1st base) and would presumably still have some cash left over.

Say Chavez and Duke are 100-percent healthy for the 1st half of '09, Giambi/ Burrell/Cust do their things (walks/homers), the young players make a little progress and Holliday puts in another-MVP like half-season...then at that point Beane can re-assess the market (at a time when teams will have a much better read on their chances) and make a major move for another starter or even JJ Hardy or Tejada, who will be 1/2 year cheaper to acquire in July rather than right now.

Basically, what I'm seeing here with Beane, is that he realizes that a lot of things have to go right in order for this team to be truly competitive next season. Chavez, Duke and Ellis have to be 100-percent healthy, and then on top of that one of the young starters (Gallagher, Gio, Eveland) has to quickly emerge as a consistent, better-than-mid-rotation pitcher. That's a lot to ask for but not entirely implausible. Being a gambler, I could see Beane betting that those things happen (improved health and a breakout from a young pitcher) and then could see him elect to improve the offense around the edges (with Giambi/Abreu/Burrell) and then enter the season with both prospects and cash to spare for the trade deadline when the market for both shortstops and starting pitchers may improve when a more clear buyer/seller dynamic can be established.

Overall, I'm just trying to rationalize why we haven't seen much more activity out of the A's front office. Perhaps the plan is to improve the offense on a budget (the cheapest of Giambi/Abreu/Burrell), enter the season with payroll flexibility , see how the young pitchers perform in the 1st half and then make a play for the missing piece(s) at mid-season?

Then again, i really could just be totally mis-reading Beane altogether and we'll all see him go out and sign Garret Anderson as a combination starting pitcher/DH, thereby killing all his birds with one big, irrational and highly unexpected stone.

No, I'm entirely serious: if Beane signs GA, I'm outta here

2008-12-27T18:58:48Z

As gotgreen alerted us last night, Garret Anderson is apparently a potential free-agent target for Billy Beane.

Before I allow my panic and disgust to reach full gorge, I will point out that it seems to me that GA is most likely either a false-flag operation (intended to drive down the asking prices of Abreu and Giamsorri) or at best the trailing third option. I mean, this paragraph all but spells that out:

The Chronicle has learned that the team has had preliminary conversations about free-agent outfielders Bobby Abreu and Garret Anderson as possible options should Giambi stick firmly to his wish for a three-year deal. A's general manager Billy Beane has had brief contact with the agents for Abreu and Anderson.

None of that indicates any serious interest.

However ... the Rays are apparently pretty serious about Giamsorri, and if Beane wasn't willing to pay above-market price for Furcal, he sure as heck won't for Abreu, who's asking for ... well, an above-market price. (And if Beane is willing to pay above-market price for Abreu but not Furcal ... well, more about that below.)

So if Giamsorri and Abreu do spurn the A's (for whatever reasons), is GA really someone that Beane would sign?

I sure hope not, because if that does come to pass, I'm walking away. Done. Handing in my keys to front page. Turning a blind eye to the A's and baseball entirely.

Look, I've got nothing against GA personally or professionally. (OK, I might have a little something against him professionally ever since he beat me at the '07 MLB Hootenanny with his ad lib adaptation of Phil Ochs' first album, but that's another story entirely.) While he's always done damage against the A's, he's always seemed to me to be the sort of noble-adversary-warrior type who went about his thing with a professional demeanor. Who he is as a person or Angels icon has zilch to do with my disgust at the prospect of his wearing green and gold.

Now, this certainly has something to do with my particular case of A's fandom; as I've explained before, I'm a relatively recent (ca. 1995) A's convert, having been initially lured by the proximity of the Coliseum to BART, the cheap admission, the ease of FSU'ing, and, yes, the FREE KRAUT! , and I converted smoothly to a Flavor Aid-drinkin' Moneyballer soon thereafter. "Billy Beane" -- and by the scare quotes I mean all that Beane stands for, as well as the staff assisting him in the FO -- play a big part in my A's appreciation, for their idiosyncratic, risk:reward-centered approach to managing the team.

Of course, there have been classic Beane blunders, blows to his personal scorecard, over the years: Kendall, Kotsay, the Dye extension, Queen Arthur, Kielty-Lilly, Shannon Stewart, Jay Payton, Piazza, Loaiza. (I'm not going to get into the whole Larry Davis thing; that, to me, has always been about a simple case of blackmail.) But those seemed to be blips on the radar screen.

Now, however, there's an incoming JDAM, and it walks with a limp and swings at the first pitch.

Let's get this out of the way: Garret Anderson sucks, is old, and is chronically injured. He's a below-average hitter as a corner outfielder, and he's no longer capable of playing the outfield. His value as a hitter is entirely dependent on his batting average, and he has Crosbyesque power (save for that stretch of years that should be known as Buds Bunny's Rabbit-Ball Era) -- actually, strike that: Crosby has about 20% higher isoSLG than GA does.

What's more, the A's have a guy who's a world-class (and cheap) DH (and a lousy, but improving outfielder) plus about 76 replacement-level outfielders on their depth chart. (GA is basically a cross between Ryan Sweeney and Estelle Getty.)

GA potentially blocking the development of one of those younger OFs doesn't bug me (mostly because none of them promise to ever be all that great) -- the very idea of GA getting PT (and, presumably, guaranteed money) bugs the crap out of me.

There's no reason to sign GA except for the fact that he's available, and relatively cheap (relative to his free-agent cohort, that is, not his absolute performance value). He's the kind of free-agent signing made by the Pirates, or the Orioles, or the Royals, just getting a warm body who can approach but not reach league-average-for-his-position production, but for way too much money. Signing a guy who's got "established MLB bona fides" (which is always less about respecting the veteran players than it is about respecting the judgment of one's fellow GMs for giving this sack of shit guaranteed money for so long). It's signing a second-tier FA because your owner has determined you don't have the scratch to sign a first-tier guy, and you Pointy-Haired Boss up the rationale that if you don't spend up to this year's budget you'll get less discretionary funding next fiscal year. (Which seems to be essentially the case with Beane electing not to make a serious effort at signing Furcal and now turning to the three stooges.)

He's the kind of signing that's made by a team that doesn't care about winning.

And seeing as how, in many respects, GA actually wouldn't be a departure at all for Beane to sign, I'd definitely put Beane and the A's in that category (and perhaps retroactively).

GA is a slap-happy eager beaver who wouldn't take a pitch if Jack Bauer was holding a .44 to his grandmother's kneecap (Stewart, Payton).

He's an aging, crippled vet who obviously can't perform on a consistent basis (Justice, Gant, Piazza, Big Hurt II).

He's priced lower than his FA cohort, but still not as low as his projected performance (Loaiza ... heck, all of them except Big Hurt II).

In short, Garret Anderson is the very apotheosis of a Billy Beane free-agent signee. If Beane signs him, it's a sure sign that Beane is following the worse angels of his own nature. And with that, I'd be done.

Abreu, Anderson...Don't Worry, Folks: It All Makes Sense

2008-12-27T18:01:40Z

I know, it seems weird. The A's have no interest in Miguel Tejada, who plays, competently, the position in most dire need of upgrading. Not once have the A's been linked to discussions around Adam Dunn, who is a young and long-term solution who walks and HRs and plays poor defense, while the A's are reportedly kicking the tires (of the coffin) on Garret Anderson and Bobby Abreu, who strongly resemble Dunn in that they also play lousy defense. And of couse the A's are kind of in the middle on Jason Giambi, because on one hand he is old and plays bad defense but on the other hand, he is that coveted "DH who can play a position badly."

Fortunately, A's fans know that Billy Beane always has a plan. It may not always be apparent, but there is one. So unlike some fans, who have to say, "Oh I see - we overpaid for a bad player because...because our GM is an idiot!" or "Oh right - we traded away our future for a marginal upgrade next year because...our city panics when we go on a three-game losing streak," with Oakland you just have to figure out what's really going on.

I have narrowed it down to a few possibilities, any of which fully explain why the A's appear to be going after every aging defensive butcher who once hit well:

* Jack Cust has been secretly working out furiously at SS, mastering gold glove range on his 400,000th repetition. Beane almost panicked when Furcal actually agreed to Beane's absurd insistence that he fly out from the Dominican Republic to discuss a lowball offer, so Billy booked reservations at Fatapples, told Furcal he could only order cole slaw due to budgetary concerns, and then toured Furcal around various crack houses before throwing him out of the car onto a lifeless heroin addict whom Forst had delivered to Gate C.

* No one has actually seen Travis Buck or Aaron Cunningham for weeks and they aren't returning Beane's calls. Massachusetts lists a married couple by the names of Mr. Travis Buck and Mrs. Erin Cunningham, and Beane recalls what seemed to be a throwaway comment at the time when Buck remarked, "I never wanted to be an outfielder - I wanted to be a lumberjack!" Massachusetts Chamber of Commerce lists a new business called Trav Buck Lumber Co. and the A's are taking no chances.

* Beane is suffering from an illness known as Post Traumatic Stress Disorder, having watched the 2008 offense, and is open to signing any hitter whose OVOHAEB (Offensive Value Over Hannahan And Emil Brown) is +0.1 or higher. In the process, Billy has decided to ignore positions and just produce the best nine hitters he can, or at least the best eight hitters and Garret Anderson. He will figure out later where to put these players in the event that the league continues to insist on playing both halves of each inning. Current thinking is that the A's will field four outfielders and no shortstop, and that Cahill and Mazzaro will not be called up until further notice.

So you see, for every puzzling development there is always a completely logical and reasonable explanation - sometimes even two or three. Now if you'll excuse me, I understand the A's have just inquired about Jose Vidro and I need to really think about this...

OK, so Plan A didn't work, on to Plan B! There is a Plan B... right?

2008-12-26T16:17:45Z

After the disaster that was the A’s most recent foray into free agency, we need to re-evaluate where the team stands. Shortstop remains a hole in the line-up and possibly in the field. 1st base would be almost as bad if it weren’t for the not-completely-unfounded hope that Daric Barton can be a productive big leaguer next year. We’re counting on Eric Chavez and Mark Ellis to return from injury and perform at some reasonable semblance of their former selves. Buck and Sweeney have potential, but they’ve had problems staying healthy and don’t exactly have a track record of consistency. The rotation is long on potential but short on experience, the depth of options is nice but the best young arms might not be ready to blossom until 2010.

There is some good news. Holliday, Cust and Suzuki are all plusses, especially if Cust gets to DH full time. The bullpen is solid and while it’s unlikely that Devine and Ziegler will match their ridiculously low 2008 ERAs they should still be more than fine in 2009. Reinforcements are on the way, Sacramento’s rotation and Midland’s line-up are loaded with quality prospects. Plus the A’s have some fiscal flexibility, which is always a good thing but is an even bigger asset when the economy is rough. The only question here is: How much cash do the A’s have on hand?

We’ve already heard Beane exclaim that his 2009 budget has shrunk in light of the current economic crunch. What we don’t know is how badly his cash flow has been impacted. Up until a few weeks ago posters like myself, PaulThomas and Zonis (basically, the guys who like to throw different roster variations up against the wall) were basing our suggestions on a budget of up to $85 million dollars. This number was based on the A’s 2007 spending habits and included player salaries and amateur signing bonuses. It seems likely that that number has shrunk. The A’s currently have approximately $51 million invested in the big league roster and the belated attempt to place Bobby Crosby on outright waivers signals a desperate attempt to free up more cash in an effort to make another move. This suggests to me that the A’s might have lost up to 20% of their original expected budget, or roughly $17 million. Keeping in mind that the A’s probably don’t want to cut into their amateur signing bonus moneys (that should be around $7 million, which I got by taking last year’s expenditures and subtracting the bulk of Inoa’s record setting bonus… c’mon, how many once-in-a-decade prospects can the A’s sign in a 12 month period?) it seems to me that the A’s probably have between $61-63 million that they can spend on the big league roster. That means Beane has $10-12 million to play with.

Where should that money be invested?

I still think the critical area is at shortstop. If the last few weeks have proven anything, it’s that the A’s have no intention of keeping Crosby around longer then they have to and it certainly appears that there are severe doubts as to the ability of Petit or Pennington to take over long term. Justin Sellers has yet to hit and Adrian Cardenas doesn’t have the range to play the position. The 2008 draft class might produce a long term solution but Christian and Coleman are at least two full years away. I realize there are some who are concerned about Chavez coming back from his myriad of injuries; I agree with those concerns but I also feel he deserves the chance to try and come back. I’ll admit my concern is alleviated by the continued belief that Cardenas has the tools to make it at the hot corner IF the A’s would ever give him the chance.

(Folks are probably thinking: That’s all well and good, grover, but the best SS on the FA market done gone and signed with the Dodgers. Yeah, I noticed.)

The only option left to the A’s is to trade for a new SS and the options are limited. I’ve come up with 3 players that I believe are realistic alternatives to anyone currently in the Oakland organization and it just so happens that each comes with a varied degree of cost/reward potential for you to consider. I’ve used Sean Smith’s 2009 projection (based on CHONE and UZR) to give you an idea of how the various players will perform. Smith has Crosby at .7/1.1/1.5/2 WAR based on his defensive performance. The standards are Poor/Average/Good/Exceptional. So let’s pick the A’s new SS for 2009 and beyond.

Low Cost/Low Reward Potential

Chin-lung Hu (LA Dodgers) Born: 2/84; 6 seasons until FA, P-WAR = .5/.7/.9/1.1

FOR

Santiago Casilla RHRP Born: 7/80; 4 seasons until FA, P-WAR = .7

The Dodgers non-tendered 2008 closer Takashi Saito because his elbow shut him down at the end of last year and it remains a question mark heading into next season. He re-signed with the Dodgers but the questions about the elbow remain unchanged. This deal would be a cost-neutral way for the Dodgers (something that’s been of increased importance to Colletti of late) to add an experienced power arm to their bullpen.

CHONE cracks down hard on Hu’s bat for good reason; he hit like crap last year and appeared to lose whatever power he gained in 2007. Word is Hu had vision issues last year that are supposed to be corrected in the offseason. I don’t know if that means Lasic or corrective lenses or just keeping him away from the sun screen but it leads me to think/hope that his true hitting skills lie closer to his 2007 performance than his Garth Brooks impersonation of yester year. Almost the entirety of Hu’s P-WAR comes from his glove, which scouts have been praising for years. He is likely to provide Good or Excellent level defense in 2009, meaning his glove alone will be worth at least 1 Win. If the bat comes around at all he could easily surpass his projection.

Since this is the only trade that doesn’t include Crosby, I’ll add that I intend to send Bobby + $4 million in cash to the Padres for a prospect or two to be decided at a later date. The real benefit in a Hu/Casilla trade is that it doesn’t cost the A’s any cash so Beane is free to take the $1.25 million he saved in dealing Crosby and combine that with what he already had in the till to give himself $11-13 million to pursue FA opportunities.

Medium Cost/Medium Reward Potential

Clint Barmes (Colorado Rockies) Born: 3/79; 3 seasons until FA, P-WAR = .5/.8/1.2/1.7

FOR

Vincent Mazzaro/Andrew Bailey/Bobby Crosby + $4 million

This is one where you have to wonder what the projection system was seeing when it spat out its numbers. Barmes out-hit Crosby by 85 OPS last year and that’s after adjusting for Park/League, plus Smith projects him to save twice as many runs as Crosby will in 2009… so why does Barmes project to be worse then Crosby in 2009? Anyways, it seems to me that Barmes, while a hacker, should at least be a match with Crosby with the bat next year and his defense should give him the overall edge. Barmes is arbitration eligible, so he’s going to cost a couple million (give or take a few hundred thousand) in 2009 but the Crosby savings ($1.25 million) should cover at least half of that, meaning Beane should still have enough cash to make a major move in FA.

Colorado gets two young power arms with ground ball tendencies while Crosby provides insurance for Tulo and 2nd base. Mazzaro and Bailey have potential and the A’s organization will feel the hit but neither arm is currently expected/projected to play a key role in 2009. This is a deal that you won’t be able to accurately judge until a year down the road and it shouldn’t be ignored that it is the A’s who are risking more in the long term. Barmes has struggled with consistency and at 30 years old we shouldn’t expect him to get any better then he’s already shown. He’s young enough to maintain where he’s at through the next 3 years but Mazzaro or Bailey could end up providing more value down the line.

High Cost/High Reward Potential

J.J. Hardy (Milwaukee Brewers) Born: 8/82; 2 seasons until FA, P-WAR = 2.1/2.5/3/3.5

FOR

Sean Gallagher/Josh Outman/Bobby Crosby + $4 million

Gio Gonzalez/Vincent Mazzaro/Bobby Crosby + $4 million

Just to clear up any confusion, the Brewers get to pick the package they prefer and Alcides Escobar isn’t an available option so don’t ask if we could swap him for Hardy. The Brewers need SP and either package gives them one arm the A’s had penciled in for their 2009 Opening Day roster and another arm who should be ready by mid-season. Crosby provides them low-cost SS insurance so they don’t have to rush Escobar.

Hardy is in his prime and is set to make between $4.5-5 million in arbitration. He’s also, as I noted above, two years away from FA. It would be my intention to sit him down and hammer out a 3 year/$24 million contract (7/8/9) to buy out his 1st year of FA eligibility and keep him in Oakland until someone from the 2008 draft class is ready to take over SS. Short of getting hit by an asteroid, Hardy will represent a major upgrade over Crosby. He’d also eat up about half of the cash that Beane had saved, thereby restricting what additional moves the A’s could make.

Those are your options, go ahead and speak your piece.

Poll

Which plan do you prefer?

Open Thread: What A's Gear Did You Get for Christmas?

2008-12-26T02:18:41Z

Happy Hollidays, er... holidays, everyone! Now that all your gifts have been opened up, it's time to share with Athletics Nation how your green and gold haul went. Posters? Jerseys? Bobbleheads? Spring Training ticket packages?
Our A's gift - Matthew and Sarah, now at six months of age, can fit in their Oakland A's onesies! And yes, we do wear A's gear on Christmas!
Load up the thread. I want pictures, links, and silly stories! Go AN and Go A's!

Hope for the Holidays

2008-12-25T19:11:30Z

I hope I can make it across the border. I hope to see my friend, and shake his hand. I hope the Pacific is as blue as it has been in my dreams. I hope.

-Morgan Freeman in Shawshank Redemption

Merry Christmas, AN. Going to make this short and sweet before heading out to my sister’s. Which means no links, no photos; just some thoughts of mine. But hey, at least it’s not a Yankee post. :)

I mentioned yesterday that for once I would like to enjoy the holiday season, and not just the holiday itself. But from raising a teen and running a business- and making futile attempts at having a life somewhere in between, it just never seems to work out that way.

And so it was at morning Mass today that I was able to take it all in. I felt right at home, too; the joint was half-happy just like a Thursday afternoon A’s game. Looks like most folks opted for Christmas Eve services. There I was able to see the (Christmas) tree through the forest of my life, to stop and smell the poinsettias, and to sing the songs, not just hear them faintly through the clock radio at my office. As I surveyed the scene, I saw something more; amid the holiday salutations and hugs, I saw hope. Well, not only did I see it, I felt it. And color me naive or call me a sucker for sentiment but it was nice to take in the spirit of the season, even if the season has- once again- passed me by.

But then I saw my ex-wife- with her five-year old daughter in tow- still openly mourning the tragic death of her second husband, and I came crashing down from my Christmas high. I was reminded that life is simply not fair sometimes, and most times for no reason at all. It does throw curveballs, only these ones don’t leave you muttering to yourself in the dugout. These ones sting and scar.

What does any of this have to do with the A’s or baseball? Heck, I don’t know. Surely the good people at Athletics Nation don’t need a refresher course on perspective. But maybe Oscar Wilde was on to something when he said life imitates art more than art imitates life. Our baseball team- perhaps more than any other- has experienced its share of highs and lows; such is the case in our own lives.

At our family gathering last night, as I missed the face of my nephew Ernie, who is serving in Iraq, I was delighted to see my niece Natalie, who continues to battle personal demons. And while Ernie is due home in March, my niece Stephanie last week received her orders to ship out oversees. In March. Meanwhile, yet another niece (Kimberly) is due- any minute now- to deliver either my fourth great-nephew or my first great-niece. Future A’s fans of course, in a family that is five-generations strong in that department.

This time of year means different things to different people. For me it’s about family and memories. And in that way, the A’s very much play a part. (I say this as I am warmed by the heavy green-and-gold sweatshirt my god-daughter gave me as a gift).

And it’s also about hope. Hope that Ernie- and the rest of our troops- come home soon. Hope that Rocio and Maya will find peace in a world that has left one a widow and the other without a father.

To my new family at AN, I hope you are celebrating today with your own families, laughing over old memories and creating new ones.

How Free Agency Is Cheapening The "Team"

2008-12-24T18:54:36Z

My problem with the Yankees' recent X-Mas shopping is that the team now favored to win the AL East in 2009 isn't really the Yankees; it's a bunch of guys the Yankees added because the team they had built wasn't that good.

Free agency can be a good thing. It gives a player who was drafted by a team he never wanted to play for a chance to have a say in where he plays, and where he lives, halfway into his career. But teams are supposed to build their team, their identity, through their farm system, using trades to fill holes or rebuild.

What free agency has done is to allow teams like the Yankees to artificially create a team they didn't build - to draft Philip Hughes and Ian Kennedy and start C.C. Sabathia and A.J. Burnett, to fix offensive deficiencies created by poor player development and poor trades by buying Mark Teixeira. Few teams can do this, so everyone else has to draft and trade well, while a few teams can buy expensive "instant surgery" while the rest of the league resorts to 3-year programs of "health development" because it can't afford pitchingectomies and hitting-transplants. It's almost like our health care system, which hardly gets high ratings from the average consumer.

If you believe this is a problem it's a difficult problem to solve because it's nigh impossible to find any solution which is good for "baseball" that also meets the approval of both owners and players. I have a lot of complaints and few answers. The only one I can think of that doesn't directly impact salaries is to limit how many FAs a team can sign; after all, they weren't your players, so why should you get to sign an unlimited number of players you didn't develop or trade for?

I don't honestly know what "the answer" is, but I know I think it's a problem. Your team is supposed to be YOUR TEAM, and if you don't like your team you are supposed to fix the problem by fixing YOUR DRAFTS or trading YOUR PLAYERS. You shouldn't just be able to go out and buy different players because you don't care for the ones you have. And that's essentially what the "Yankees" have done, quotation marks to emphasize that they're not really the Yankees. I think this unlimited access to as many free agents as you can attract and can afford is cheapening the concept of building a baseball team. Do you agree?

Open Yankee-hating, the-world-is-unfair, I-never-get-what-I-want-for-Christmas thread

2008-12-24T18:44:04Z

Since we don't seem to be done with all of that yet, given the comment counts and server churning of the last couple threads ...

Poll

Why is it, you think, that you never do get what you want for Christmas?

Newsflash: The Earth is ROUND! I Hate the Yankees!

2008-12-24T01:26:25Z

Well, for the first year in about five years, Billy Beane didn't do anything right around my birthday. Instead I sat around and waited for the A's to hopefully seal the deal with wishy-washy Furcal.

Instead the Yankees went out and spent about $424 million on arguably the best free agents on the market. Teixeira, Sabathia and Burnett all Yankees and a big F U to the rest of MLB. It used to be Crazy George Steinbrenner but now it's Nutso Hank. I'd normally complain about it but the truth is that money hasn't bought the Yankees anything in a long time. So it's not a definite that the Yankees are going to win anything in 2009.

Still if the press is to be believed, and I always use that caveat since I know that the press doesn't always report things with accuracy, the Yankees went anywhere from $10-15 million beyond what the Red Sox were offering Teixeira. They were ultimately bidding against themselves. I've had people argue with me, including Lew Wolff, that teams like the Yankees are good for baseball. It's much easier to say that when the Yankees haven't won anything. But I still think that a team that spends like that is not ultimately good for baseball even with the revenue sharing in place. How does a team like Oakland have a chance to ever sign a talent like Teixeira if the Red Sox and Yankees are the only two teams that are in that stratosphere? Hell even the Angels, which is essentially the West Coast version of the Yankees and Sox dropped far out of that one.

Still, I'll just argue that I still think baseball needs a salary cap. It will never happen, but I love what it's done for other sports like hockey and football. Yes, you can still have dynasties emerge, but it seems like everyone has a chance. Everyone will use the Tampa example of a team that is in a horrid market that has risen from the ashes. The problem is that it took the Rays years and years of wallowing in those ashes and getting tons of remarkably good draft picks in order for them to do their phoenix impression.

Listen, I know that it's never going to happen. Selig and company would never want a salary cap and salary caps are initiated from frustrated owners. I just sometimes need to state the obvious. I hate the freaking Yankees and the system in baseball blows.

Report: Yankees sign Teixeira

2008-12-23T20:30:07Z

According to Jon Heyman, the Yanks have agreed to a deal with Mark Teixeira.

Buster Olney is confirming it as well - eight years and 180 million , with a full no-trade clause.

The Yankees have now signed the three best players in this year's free agent market.

If they are willing to sacrifice some center field defense, their starting nine looks like this:

1b Tex
2b Cano
ss Jeter
3b A-Rod
C Posada
LF Damon
CF Swisher
RF Nady
DH Matsui

Analysis:

Clearly some fans will howl about this...but it's easy to rationalize the Yanks' logic. Teixiera is the best first baseman on the market not only in this year, but for the next several years. And, equally important, the 2010 free agent class offers very few acceptable options in right field for the Yankees, too. Look at that list - those right fielders are very old and declining defensively.

What's the connection between Teixeira and right field? By signing him, the Yankees can install Swisher in right field for the next several years...and eschew the poor right-field market.

They've had an incredible off-season, and done some tremendous long-term planning. They've invested heavily in starting pitching partially because next year's starting pitching market is very poor - it's headlined by John Lackey (if he doesn't sign an extension), Rich Harden, Brett Myers, and Duchscherer, probably none of whom the Yankees would want to invest in long-term. And they won't have to, because their 2010 rotation is set as long as Hughes can step in for Pettitte long-term.

The Yankees one free agent splurge of the '10 offseason will probably be a left fielder...just as Johnny Damon, Xavier Nady, and Hideki Matsui are all coming off the books, freeing up almost $35 million. So you can probably expect Matt Holliday or Jason Bay to be manning left field for them in 2010.

Their 2010 lineup loses Matsui, Damon, and Nady, and replaces them with Austin Jackson in center field (after spending '09 in AAA), Swisher in right, and Bay/Holliday in left (with the other one playing in Boston?) Perhaps they keep one of Matsui/Damon to be their '10 DH.

But they probably want to only have their '10 DH on the hook for one year...because the '11 free agent class is headlined by Joe Mauer. If he is willing to become a Yankee, there's no doubt the Yanks could outbid everyone, install him at catcher and bump Posada to DH in 2011, the final year of Posada's deal.

I feel like the Yanks have assured themselves a playoff berth for years to come. They've bought the three best players, but the scary thing is, they really haven't even had to overpay.

AN Warmly Welcomes 67Marquez to the Front Page

2008-12-23T07:09:30Z

I just wanted to drop a note to AN and let everyone know that 67Marquez will be joining the Athletics Nation front page crew starting this week. I can't tell you how happy this makes me because one of the things that I think could be strengthened about AN is the historical perspective. I've been trying to improve this aspect of the site for a long, long time back to recruiting some Philadelphia Athletics fans to talk about their lifelong passion.

While Marquez doesn't go that far back, he covers the A's years in Oakland with a verve and passion unlike anyone I've seen. We've tried to cover the statstically, humorously, practically and now, hopefully, historically. He won't be restricted to that topic, but I know that he'll bring a missing element to what we currently have.

Please join me in giving him a warm welcome to the AN front page. Welcome 67Marquez. We're thrilled to have you.